Assam 2026 Tracker Poll: BJP Eyes Hat-Trick as NDA Consolidates Structural Edge

The Tracker Poll from People's Pulse Research Organization came out recently, and it shows the BJP is in a strong spot to win a third term in Assam.

As per the report shared by Rajan Pandey, Political Analyst, Director Peoples Pulse Research Organization, they did the survey from mid November to the end of December 2025, and it looks like BJP could get 69 to 74 seats in the 126 member Assembly.

The NDA as a whole might hit around 90 seats, which is pretty solid.

If that happens, it would be like what Congress did back in the day with three terms in a row. BJP has been the big player since 2016, and this just keeps that going. I think its kind of impressive how they have held on.

One thing that stands out is how the seats dont match up perfectly with the votes. BJP is supposed to get a majority of seats, but their vote share is only ahead of Congress by about two points. That seems small, but in Assam's first-past-the-post system, where its first past the post, it makes a difference. Especially after the 2023 delimitation, which changed things in Lower Assam and Barak Valley. It split up where opposition votes were strong and grouped the BJP supporters better. So even a little shift in votes can mean a lot more seats for NDA.

The BJP's edge comes from their organization more than some big wave. They won local elections, council polls, and the 2024 Lok Sabha ones, which built up their ground level stuff. Like at the booths and with people getting benefits.

Welfare is a big part of it, especially for tribal groups, OBCs, and tea garden workers. Even with problems like inflation and jobs not being great, or some law and order issues, a lot of voters seem to stick with the continuity. They like the benefits coming through, I guess. It feels like that outweighs the bigger worries for some.

Congress is doing better than before, picking up more vote share. A lot of that is from AIUDF losing ground, with Muslim voters in Lower Assam and Barak Valley going to Congress as the main opposition. But seats wise, they arent gaining as much as youd think. Their organization is weak, theres infighting, and not enough good local candidates. So votes dont turn into wins easily.

On the Chief Minister side, Himanta Biswa Sarma is still ahead, but not by much. Sarbananda Sonowal and Gaurav Gogoi from Congress are close. Gogoi seems popular with younger and city folks, which is interesting. Still, that personal appeal isnt shifting the whole party dynamic. It shows how individual leaders matter, but the partys structure is what counts more.

Smaller parties are fading. AIUDF might get wiped out, probably because voters are tired and shifting strategies. UPPL is down after Bodoland issues, and the BJP BPF deal should lock in BTAD for NDA. Groups like Raijor Dal and AJP are just in small areas, nothing statewide.

Overall, this election looks more about the setup than any big changes. NDA has the reach, alliances, and the way seats are drawn on their side. Not so much a huge popularity boost. With months left, things could move, but if opposition doesnt unite or fix their org, BJP NDA probably gets the third term. It would mean things stay the same, not some big shakeup. That part gets a bit messy to predict, though.

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