Rain Deficit Widens as January–February Showers Fall Far Below Normal in Assam

GUWAHATI: At a time when residents across Assam and the Northeastern region are eagerly awaiting pre-monsoon showers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an early weather advisory for the Northeast.

According to the Regional Meteorological Centre at Borjhar in Guwahati, light rainfall is likely to occur at isolated places across Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh over the next five days. Meteorologists have also warned that thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may occur at isolated locations in Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland within the next 24 hours.

The IMD stated that an upper air cyclonic circulation, which was earlier positioned over western Assam, has now shifted to central Assam and extends up to 1.5 kilometres above mean sea level. Additionally, a strong subtropical westerly jet stream with core winds of around 100 knots at 12.6 kilometres above mean sea level continues to prevail over Northeast India, influencing the regional weather system.

Light rain is expected at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the first three days, with occasional rainfall also likely in Nagaland and Manipur on the third day. However, dry weather is likely to prevail over Mizoram and Tripura during this period. From Day 4 onwards, dry conditions are expected to dominate across all Northeastern states, with no significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the forecast period.

Thunderstorm and lightning warnings have been issued for the first two days over parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, while no major weather warnings are expected for the remaining days.

Rainfall Analysis and Deficit Concern

Meteorological data shows that Assam has recorded a significant rainfall deficit during the early months of 2026. In January, the state recorded only 0.2 mm of rainfall compared to 3.6 mm in January 2025 and a long-term normal of 11.5 mm. February has so far recorded virtually no rainfall, against 1.3 mm last year and a normal average of 18 mm. This indicates a sharp departure from normal precipitation levels, raising concerns over early-season moisture stress.

Historical data also shows that rainfall usually begins to increase sharply from March onwards, with normal averages rising to 52.5 mm in March and 182.1 mm in April. Meteorologists warn that a prolonged dry spell during the early part of the year could impact soil moisture levels and early agricultural activities if the deficit continues.

In Guwahati, including Borjhar, Dispur and IIT Guwahati, weather conditions are expected to remain hazy to partly cloudy over the coming week, with maximum temperatures hovering around 31–33 degrees Celsius and minimum temperatures between 15 and 17 degrees Celsius.

Also Read: Assam Braces for Heavy Rainfall and Thunderstorms, Red Alert Issued for Kokrajhar and Chirang