Maduro’s Fall Is More Than Regime Change — It’s a Warning to the World

The dramatic U.S. military operation that extracted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his Caracas residence last weekend has sent shockwaves far beyond Latin America, marking what analysts describe as the most aggressive assertion of American power in the Western Hemisphere in decades — and a direct warning to China.

The raid, authorised by U.S. President Donald Trump, culminated in Maduro and his wife being flown overnight to New York, where they appeared before a federal court in Brooklyn on narco-terrorism charges. The couple pleaded not guilty, with Maduro insisting he remains Venezuela’s legitimate president.

But the operation’s geopolitical significance extends well beyond the courtroom.

A revived Monroe Doctrine — with force

U.S. officials say the intervention reflects the administration’s newly articulated “Donroe Doctrine”, a revival and expansion of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine that asserts American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Codified in the White House’s National Security Strategy released last month, the doctrine claims a unilateral U.S. right to block rival powers from controlling “strategically vital assets” in the Americas.

One of the document’s most striking lines declares that Washington “should make every effort to push out foreign companies that build infrastructure in the region” — language widely interpreted as aimed squarely at Beijing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscored the point after Maduro’s removal, stating the U.S. would not “allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors and rivals.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz was even more explicit, accusing China of moving “incredibly aggressively” into Latin America and pledging that the Trump administration would “push back hard.”

Oil at the heart of the strategy

At the centre of Washington’s calculus is Venezuela’s oil — the world’s largest proven reserves.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has privately told advisers that asserting U.S. control over Venezuela’s state-run oil giant PDVSA could help drive global oil prices down to $50 a barrel. Plans under discussion reportedly include the U.S. acquiring, marketing and controlling the bulk of Venezuela’s crude exports for the foreseeable future.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the importance of oil leverage, saying Washington needs to control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely” to force political and economic change. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the transport of 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. represents only the “first action” in a long-term strategy.

Secretary Rubio later said the U.S. would sell Venezuelan oil at market rates, with revenues managed under American oversight to “benefit the Venezuelan people.”

China caught off guard, vows resistance

Beijing appeared stunned by Maduro’s ouster. Just hours before the raid, a senior Chinese delegation had met the Venezuelan leader in Caracas, posting images of handshakes and smiles on social media.

China’s Foreign Ministry condemned U.S. pressure on Venezuela to cut economic ties with Beijing as a “typical bullying act,” warning that China’s “legitimate rights and interests” must be protected. At the United Nations, both China and Russia accused Washington of violating international law and acting as a unilateral “world judge.”

Chinese officials are now scrambling to assess their exposure. Regulators have asked state banks to report their lending to Venezuela, where Beijing has provided more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans since 2007. Although China has reduced its reliance on Venezuelan crude in recent years, Caracas still owes roughly $20 billion.

Wu Xinbo, a senior adviser to China’s government, warned that any attempt by Washington to target Chinese investments would provoke retaliation. “If the U.S. puts our businesses as hostages, we can do the same,” he said, pointing to American economic interests in China.

Latin America pushes back — cautiously

Despite Washington’s hard line, governments across Latin America have reacted coolly to U.S. threats, seeing little appetite for choosing sides.

Brazilian officials stressed that Trump’s action was specific to Venezuela and said President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would not align exclusively with either Washington or Beijing. Mexico’s lawmakers echoed that view, while Argentina and Peru said growing economic ties with China did not undermine security cooperation with the U.S.

In Colombia, however, tensions are sharper. After President Gustavo Petro formally joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the U.S. threatened to block multilateral financing for projects involving Chinese firms. Colombia’s deputy foreign minister Mauricio Jaramillo called such pressure “unacceptable,” insisting the country must defend its sovereignty.

“We need to stop demonising ties with China,” he said. “Both countries are friends.”

China’s deep footprint in the region

China’s influence in Latin America is vast and deeply entrenched.

Goods trade between China and the region has surged more than forty-fold since 2000, reaching $518 billion in 2024. Chinese brands dominate consumer markets, while Beijing’s direct investments now exceed $180 billion, surpassing U.S. influence in 14 of the region’s 33 countries.

From lithium mines in the Andes and soy terminals in Brazil to massive hydropower projects and electricity grids, Chinese companies control key infrastructure across the continent. The deepwater port of Chancay in Peru, inaugurated by President Xi Jinping in 2024, has become a focal point of U.S. concern due to its capacity to handle the world’s largest vessels.

U.S. officials have floated punitive tariffs on goods passing through Chinese-controlled ports, and Pentagon reports warn that Latin America hosts China’s largest overseas space infrastructure footprint — including a controversial observation facility in Argentina’s Patagonia region.

A dangerous escalation

While Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet multiple times this year and a fragile U.S.-China trade truce remains intact, analysts warn that the Venezuela operation could become a turning point.

“Until now, the Donroe Doctrine was mostly rhetorical,” said Jeremy Chan of Eurasia Group. “After this weekend, Beijing has to reconsider whether its investments across Latin America are truly secure.”

As U.S. forces continue to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers worldwide and Washington signals its intent to dominate the country’s energy sector indefinitely, the risk of confrontation is growing — not just over Venezuela, but over the future balance of power in the Western Hemisphere.

Whether Trump’s gamble restores American pre-eminence or ignites a broader geopolitical clash may soon define the next phase of global politics.

Also Read: Who Owns Venezuela Now? Trump’s Words Shake the Foundations of International Law